Chilean Mine “75% Science, 25% Miracle” …

… or so says the WSJ today. “It was 75% engineering and 25% a miracle,” said topographer Macarena Valdes as she was speaking of her own role in the rescue. I submit that maybe only 75% was engineering but the miracle portion occurred within Ms. Valdes’ brain!

She acknowledged using “gut instinct” to help guide the […]

By |October 14th, 2010|Perception, ReThinking|0 Comments

MORE than Animal Spirits

For the past 50-60 years it has been popular to relegate the very relevant and powerful dimension of emotions to the category of “to be controlled”. On one hand, we talk all the time about how confidence, which is a a feeling more than anything, is so important in all domains: markets, politicians, sports…. and […]

By |September 30th, 2010|Academia, Perception, ReThinking, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments

It isn’t about NO emotion, it is about “picking” the right one.

You hear it in the press and from ostensible experts all of the time – versions of “have no emotion”, “remove emotion”, or “emotion got in the way”.

What is so amazing about this is how they don’t notice that emotion is necessary for everything – perception, decision, action and of course, motivation. Somehow they think […]

By |September 9th, 2010|Perception, ReThinking|1 Comment

Hurricane Earl – Even More Objective Probability than the Markets

A few moments ago, CNBC broadcast a weather report showing the best and worst case scenarios for the potential left and right track of Hurricane Earl. They projected it will “brush the East Coast on Thursday”. Weather channels, however, are saying “Friday” is the H-day. Who’s right?

There is literally no way to know – until […]

By |August 31st, 2010|Perception, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments

“Travesting” and the fC’s in decision making under uncertainty

Two new terms you will (eventually) read in this book I am feverishly working on. (It’s true – I am having a blast and really want nothing else but to be able to work on it… hence, my choice of the word feverishly): “Travesting” – meaning the combination of trading and investing that everyone needs […]

By |August 8th, 2010|Perception, ReThinking|2 Comments

The Power of Frustration

...doing the emotion analytics - and taking into consideration my own emotional architecture - turns frustration into progress.

By |June 27th, 2010|Perception, ReThinking|1 Comment

Beyond Behavioral Finance to the Brains Making the Decisions

The market meltdowns of last few years spawned an interest in the research and theoretical field of Behavioral Finance that simply didn’t exist before. Books like THINK TWICE, Harnessing the Power of Counter-Intuition garner great attention and great crowds for Michael Mauboussin the author. Calls to our office for talks, interviews or articles on “Irrationality” […]

By |June 25th, 2010|Perception, ReThinking|1 Comment

New from The French PhD Chick over at Trader Psyches – Are we as Irrational as They Claim?

Now Dr. Elise Payzan Le Nestour is about to begin her professorship in Finance at The Australian School of Business but she has graciously taken the time to summarize the findings from her recent research.

“(My) research shows that under certain conditions, investors can cope with the instability encountered in financial markets very well. Specifically, they […]

By |June 1st, 2010|Perception, ReThinking|0 Comments