Subjective Probabilities

The Social Market – Theory of Mind

It’s easy to forget that markets are nothing more than a mechanism to transmit value and value is nothing more than perception. Hence markets are nothing more than perception. Likewise, it is easy to forget that in all of our fundamental, technical and economic analyses, we are trying to decipher and predict both current and […]

By |August 16th, 2011|Perception, ReThinking, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments

The Debt Deal’s Social Map

So Sunday night came and went without a market meltdown. And now the market talk is of “we all know they will make some kind of deal” so … what’s the big deal?

Let me ask you, what if they don’t? What if Congresspeople who truly don’t understand how financial markets function on perception decide that […]

By |July 25th, 2011|Perception, ReThinking, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments

“Why” of Financial Crisis only on p. 4 as Dow hits 12K

We need a revolution in our own conscious minds that makes us see ourselves as we are once and for all. We need to admit that how we feel makes all the difference in the world to what we do or decide.

By |January 28th, 2011|Academia, Perception, ReThinking, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments

New Model of Thinking and Emotion

At the recent Neuroleadership summit in Boston, Lisa Feldman Barrett articulated a whole new view on the appropriate model for understanding our thinking and our feelings.

“Lisa challenged some of the most deeply held ideas about how the mind works in her session. She stated that Daniel Goldman’s theory on emotional intelligence is largely incorrect. Studies […]

By |November 27th, 2010|Academia, Perception, ReThinking, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments

MORE than Animal Spirits

For the past 50-60 years it has been popular to relegate the very relevant and powerful dimension of emotions to the category of “to be controlled”. On one hand, we talk all the time about how confidence, which is a a feeling more than anything, is so important in all domains: markets, politicians, sports…. and […]

By |September 30th, 2010|Academia, Perception, ReThinking, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments

Hurricane Earl – Even More Objective Probability than the Markets

A few moments ago, CNBC broadcast a weather report showing the best and worst case scenarios for the potential left and right track of Hurricane Earl. They projected it will “brush the East Coast on Thursday”. Weather channels, however, are saying “Friday” is the H-day. Who’s right?

There is literally no way to know – until […]

By |August 31st, 2010|Perception, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments