Evidently I just can’t get enough of what the Ivory Towerites have to say about the “brain on risk“. This weekend, despite Open House New York and two of the three living creatures I must tend to out of town, I found myself listening to Joseph LeDoux of NYU, David Brooks of the NY Times and 5th year post-docs from as far away as Peking talk about their latest findings (or thoughts in the case of Brooks) regarding how our brains use, perceive, process and react to emotional data ... and I LOVED it!
See the real reason Trader Psyches exists (full disclosure here) is of course, like every student of any form of psychology or psychiatry, I wanted to understand my own thinking, decisions and actions – particularly in relationship to my ability to easily take gobs of money out of the market but almost just as easily – okay even more easily – give it back. (I have cured the second btw – and yes with my own methods).
Believe it or not, social and emotional (affective) neuroscience holds the key. Questions like how does the brain interpret symbols that represent other people’s intentions versus how does the brain interpret direct physical evidence of other people’s intentions (a raised fist or pointed gun for example), go directly to the heart of the matter of trading in a pit versus trading on a screen as well as in the case of the aforementioned, directly to chart reading.
Evidence is mounting that despite the widespread belief that markets are about numbers and probabilities in fact our brains are not fooled and know they are about predicting other traders and investors intentions and future motivations. In other words, maybe the reason so many people have such a hard time consistently thinking in terms of probability is that the brain knows that just because you have a hammer, a hammer isn’t necessarily the right tool for the job!
A couple of specific points – and names of researchers to ponder – (in many cases this data comes from what are called poster sessions where doctoral and post-doc explain their latest research so it isn’t published yet.)
1. Pranjal Mehta, Columbia University “Neural Mechanisms of the testosterone-aggression relationship: the Role of the OrbitoFrontal Cortex” A couple of the salient points for trading here 1) any effects of testosterone were relevant within gender norms or in other words, women with relatively high testosterone compared to other women showed the same effects as men with relatively high testosterone. Take home for female traders – you know that news item a few years ago about traders in Europe and testosterone and lengths of fingers… don’t worry about it!
Ancillary points include the location of the actions (frontal cortex) and the complex interaction of testosterone and cortisol. Why do they matter? – more evidence that our higher brains aren’t just extraordinary computers and maybe the whole widely held assumption that our brains CAN work like ultimate computers needs revised!
2) Kateri McRae, Stanford, “Bottom-up vs. Top-down emotion generation: Implications for emotion regulation”. (Now as any regular follower of ours knows I think the whole emphasis on regulating emotions is mis-placed because the FACT OF THE MATTER IS, you only have to regulate actions! Nevertheless, the concept of modulating one’s own emotions still permeates lots of the science so my other attitude is let’s see what we can learn.)
The most salient point here – and I quote – “Reappraisal paradoxically INCREASED amygdala activity during bottom-up generated emotion“. Okay I know that the meaning of that isn’t intuitively obvious to a trader (otherwise why would you even be reading this?) so let me explain. I think it is safe to say that the most widely held BELIEF regarding changing negative emotions centers around the ideas of re-framing or in layman’s terms, changing your perception about the meaning of something. All kinds of official and pop psychology strategies including NLP or “neuro-linguistic programming” rely on the idea that if you change how you think, it will change how you feel.
What this study is saying is that process worked for certain processes like interpreting “words, statements or autobiographical memories” but it not only did not work for more basic interpretations like “phobic objects” (red on your P&L) but in fact, when tried with more survival (my word) type emotional reactions, it actually made it worse.
All I can say is Hallelujah! If I have answered a question about NLP or re-framing in a trading psych webinar once, I have answered it 1000 times. “Do you use, believe, recommend etc. NLP?” I am always adamant, militant and maybe even rude because I am so sure it doesn’t work when it comes to losing money (based on talking to 1000’s of traders and the a priori knowledge of the centrality of emotion to perception) and I know it tends to make it worse because when tried you have not only a negative trade but an additional experience of failure to deal with!
So… how to apply? If you have tried reappraisal or what most call reframing or even reprogramming and it didn’t work for you, don’t waste one second wondering or worrying about why. The Darwinian nature of trading and the conscious and unconscious meaning of a red P&L is almost certainly a “bottom-up” emotion and behavioral & brain picture evidence says that strategy worsens the situation. (As an aside – you’ll find more around the blog but in short try words instead – put the feelings into words. Write it out or talk it out – without judgment. No one at the conference will verify this technique but give it a try – and let me know.)
… I skipped the end of the meeting today (just to write this post 😉 but yesterday ended with David Brooks calling for those who will create a revolution by bridging what science knows about how we think and the long held misunderstanding that we are single, isolated beings rationally maximizing our utility. I can only hope that Mr. Brooks will consider Trader Psyches and our new parent The ReThink Group an element of that revolution.