decision-making under risk

Revolutionary Trading Psychology

Everyone thinks the market is a game of numbers. We use complex models, umpteen oscillators or retracement calculations and even a fundamental analysis of supply and demand - all based in numbers and about numbers. But in reality, the numbers of the market are but an illusion.

By |May 11th, 2009|Emotion Analytics, Learning Psych Cap|4 Comments

Consistently Good Decisions and Losers

The simple (but not easy answer) is all you need to do is understand the feelings - preferably both macro level (what you expect of yourself and echoes from your past) and micro or in the moment reactions to the result of a trade or price movement.

By |May 2nd, 2009|Markets|2 Comments

Did Quant Models Fail? No, Not Exactly

Learn to research and evaluate internal feeling based data. Both value it and beware of the risks it brings - a double edge sword.

By |April 28th, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

AMBIGUITY – Is it going Up or is it going Down?

Faced with ambiguity, your brain naturally resorts to filing through unconsciously stored patterns and communicates with you through your feelings as much as your thoughts.

By |April 7th, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

What Scares Traders

I always know if my randomly generated “Psych Cap Tricks & Tips” hits the nail on the head by the number of unsubscribes I get. If I tell it like it is – i.e. you need to plan to use judgment in your trading plan… I get 5 people who unsubscribe.

It used to hurt.

By |March 26th, 2009|Markets|4 Comments

PERCEPTION – It’s Not Rocket Surgery… to borrow a great line

Bear markets mean lower lows and lower highs ... and we are in a bear market until we get higher lows. and higher highs ... which is decidedly NOT today.

By |March 2nd, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

Knowing How to Play Poker Isn’t Enough

See probabilities are not enough if you don't also listen to your instincts and learn to tolerate the miserable feelings of being nervous or predicting that something could go wrong. That kind of Emotion Analytics would have saved Boaz .... or Brian or.....

By |February 6th, 2009|Emotion Analytics, Markets|8 Comments

Markets R Human

Markets are nothing more than the reflection of human beliefs and feelings. It doesn’t matter how anyone decides upon a price at which they might buy or sell, once they “are in” it is a belief about the future (10 seconds or 10 years) that is at least the underlying REASON (ironic) they have a […]

By |October 14th, 2008|Emotions & Decisions, Markets|4 Comments

Human Risk

The idea of human risk offers a different angle on the idea of psychological capital. It is easy to think about markets and pricing as abstract entities when in reality they are the sum total of human decisions. Hence, human decisions are at the core of all bubbles, crashes, rallies, sell-offs and market volatility – […]

By |September 19th, 2008|Emotions & Decisions|2 Comments

Emotions for the Markets

Decision-research basically proves that we need our emotions to make a good risk-reward decision.

By |September 10th, 2008|Emotions & Decisions|0 Comments