Everyone thinks the market is a game of numbers. We use complex models, umpteen oscillators or retracement calculations and even a fundamental analysis of supply and demand - all based in numbers and about numbers. But in reality, the numbers of the market are but an illusion.
The simple (but not easy answer) is all you need to do is understand the feelings - preferably both macro level (what you expect of yourself and echoes from your past) and micro or in the moment reactions to the result of a trade or price movement.
Learn to research and evaluate internal feeling based data. Both value it and beware of the risks it brings - a double edge sword.
Faced with ambiguity, your brain naturally resorts to filing through unconsciously stored patterns and communicates with you through your feelings as much as your thoughts.
I always know if my randomly generated “Psych Cap Tricks & Tips” hits the nail on the head by the number of unsubscribes I get. If I tell it like it is – i.e. you need to plan to use judgment in your trading plan… I get 5 people who unsubscribe.
It used to hurt.
Bear markets mean lower lows and lower highs ... and we are in a bear market until we get higher lows. and higher highs ... which is decidedly NOT today.
See probabilities are not enough if you don't also listen to your instincts and learn to tolerate the miserable feelings of being nervous or predicting that something could go wrong. That kind of Emotion Analytics would have saved Boaz .... or Brian or.....
Markets are nothing more than the reflection of human beliefs and feelings. It doesn’t matter how anyone decides upon a price at which they might buy or sell, once they “are in” it is a belief about the future (10 seconds or 10 years) that is at least the underlying REASON (ironic) they have a […]
The idea of human risk offers a different angle on the idea of psychological capital. It is easy to think about markets and pricing as abstract entities when in reality they are the sum total of human decisions. Hence, human decisions are at the core of all bubbles, crashes, rallies, sell-offs and market volatility – […]