Risk Prediction

The Secret Ingredient to Success in The NYTimes

Last Sunday, the most successful trader I knew from the Chicago Options pits texted me this – “Self-examination is the key to noodle making and other accomplishments.”

Now you should know two things – 1) this guy NEVER texts – we have been friends for going on 20 years and this is the very first […]

Risk & Uncertainty: Better Judgment

It’s easy to confuse the two but as Frank Knight wrote almost a century ago, they are two different things.

Little did he know, that in addition to his logic, the brain reacts to each differently. With risk, or KNOWN probabilities, the brain can handle it in a more or less linear way. With uncertainty, which […]

It never ceases to amaze me ho…

It never ceases to amaze me how “Regret Theory”, while SO instructive, has been missed by psychologists & economists. http://t.co/lNfxouQ2

By |August 15th, 2012|ReThinking, Risk Prediction|0 Comments

The Psychology of Why Europe Will NOT Implode

In two words – “cold war”.

Psychological research shows that whether we know it or not, everything we perceive, analyze and decide upon, we do so from a social-emotional context. We like to tell ourselves that we are being objective but our beliefs and our confidence in them come from our backgrounds – a social-emotional context.

So […]

Jamie, Psych Risk Management & Living to Trade Another Day

This is a true story.

3 years ago today (I have this weird memory for dates), I spotted Jamie Dimon and Bill Daley sitting outside Gibsons in Chicago. I just happened to have come from a lunch with Patricia Crisafulli who had written the House of Dimon and I had her book with his picture on […]

All About Alpha & Psychology Today

Here are the links to my thoughts on the needed new paradigm in risk management (All About Alpha) and the three things anyone can do to be more successful in the financial markets.

What were they thinking? From MF to LTCM

3 Things anyone can do better to understand the psychological side of the markets – the […]

By |February 8th, 2012|Perception, Psychology Today, ReThinking, Risk Management, Risk Prediction|0 Comments