Subjective Probabilities

Nailing Better Trade Exits

Do you realize that almost no matter where you exit a trade, you are going to feel bad? If the trade is a winner, you wonder if you could have gotten more out of it or why you gave back part of what you had. It’s like a winner is ironically a no-win situation. On […]

Empathy and Intuition, Two Key Trading Thinking Styles

Two separate studies interviewing close to 200 successful portfolio managers and traders confirm what Jason Voss and Ravhee Mehta have reported in their books The Intuitive Investor and The Emotionally Intelligent Investor. Being able to read the feelings of other market participants, a form of empathy, and being able to parse one’s one feelings for […]

Neuroscience & The Risk Manager including White Paper The Art of Algorithmic War

Coates, Shull, other experts weigh in on risk professionals’ attention to their discipline

Thursday, May 02, 2013,
Risk Professional Magazine (published by the Global Association of Risk Professionals – GARP)
By Katherine Heires
Over the past 20 years, advances in brain imaging technology and other methods of analyzing neural activity have yielded important insights into […]

The Secret Ingredient to Success in The NYTimes

Last Sunday, the most successful trader I knew from the Chicago Options pits texted me this – “Self-examination is the key to noodle making and other accomplishments.”

Now you should know two things – 1) this guy NEVER texts – we have been friends for going on 20 years and this is the very first […]

Risk & Uncertainty: Better Judgment

It’s easy to confuse the two but as Frank Knight wrote almost a century ago, they are two different things.

Little did he know, that in addition to his logic, the brain reacts to each differently. With risk, or KNOWN probabilities, the brain can handle it in a more or less linear way. With uncertainty, which […]

The Psychology of Why Europe Will NOT Implode

In two words – “cold war”.

Psychological research shows that whether we know it or not, everything we perceive, analyze and decide upon, we do so from a social-emotional context. We like to tell ourselves that we are being objective but our beliefs and our confidence in them come from our backgrounds – a social-emotional context.

So […]

Instant Intelligence

We all like to think we are smart. We all admire, sometimes in awe, intelligence. But did you know that our understanding of the composition of intelligence is rapidly changing? Did you know that one research study showed that hand movement improved one’s ability to do complex math?

To become instantly smarter about any decision […]

Jamie, Psych Risk Management & Living to Trade Another Day

This is a true story.

3 years ago today (I have this weird memory for dates), I spotted Jamie Dimon and Bill Daley sitting outside Gibsons in Chicago. I just happened to have come from a lunch with Patricia Crisafulli who had written the House of Dimon and I had her book with his picture on […]

What Was Corzine Thinking?

Totally revamping emotions as data allows for the evaluation of alternative emotions like "what if I am wrong". And that is the only way to get out ahead of any concept or fact of our brain's ostensible "system 1" and "system 2"

By |November 4th, 2011|Perception, ReThinking, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments

Report from The Society of Neuroeconomics

Last weekend, a group of the world’s preeminent neuroeconomists met in Evanston and the research findings reported on were strikingly different from even two years ago. Virtually nothing about system 1 (logic) and system 2 (emotion) and a new found appreciation for the integrated role of feelings and emotions in every risk decision. Antonio Damasio, […]

By |October 5th, 2011|Academia, Emotion research, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments