ambiguity

What You Need to Know to Trade

There must be 10,000 lists like this… let me add mine – hopefully with many useful twists.

1. You need to know what you are looking for – both to enter the market and to exit.

2. You need to know what the variations on #1 are – and what they are not!

3. You need to know […]

By |January 19th, 2010|Definitions, Learning Psych Cap|0 Comments

What is this thing I talk about anyway

Psych cap – emotional intelligence – judgment – feelings – ambiguity perception…. can we get this organized?

Ok

1. Markets are only human

2. The numbers are only a clue

3. The brain knows it

4. The brain believes it is in the jungle fighting for survival

5. The brain knows how to survive and uses all kinds of mechanisms to […]

By |June 4th, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

Revolutionary Trading Psychology

Everyone thinks the market is a game of numbers. We use complex models, umpteen oscillators or retracement calculations and even a fundamental analysis of supply and demand - all based in numbers and about numbers. But in reality, the numbers of the market are but an illusion.

By |May 11th, 2009|Emotion Analytics, Learning Psych Cap|4 Comments

Did Quant Models Fail? No, Not Exactly

Learn to research and evaluate internal feeling based data. Both value it and beware of the risks it brings - a double edge sword.

By |April 28th, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

To Blackman Capital re: How I Trade

The real clue is that the numbers (and the bars and lines they draw) are only a clue - not the real answer.

By |April 20th, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

AMBIGUITY – Is it going Up or is it going Down?

Faced with ambiguity, your brain naturally resorts to filing through unconsciously stored patterns and communicates with you through your feelings as much as your thoughts.

By |April 7th, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

Having Forgotten to Doubt, “Modern Finance” drove us Insane

Portfolio selection: Let’s exhume the buried man!

In his milestone paper “Portfolio Selection” published in the Journal of Finance in 1952, Harry Markowitz, the pioneer of “modern finance,” recommends to use the Expected return-Variance (E-V) rule, both as a working hypothesis to explain investment behavior and as a guide to “investment” – as distinguished from speculative […]

By |December 8th, 2008|French PhD Chick, Markets|2 Comments

Elise Payzan Le Nestour on “The Brain on Risk”

On The Ubiquitous Missing Information in Markets: What Neuroeconomics Has to Say
‘Ambiguity’ is the Hallmark of Trading and Investing
The situation of taking a position when the odds are uncertain because of missing information is referred to by economists as “ambiguous”. F Knight in his book Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit was the first to emphasize ambiguity […]

By |November 4th, 2008|Emotions & Decisions, French PhD Chick|4 Comments