Trader Diagnosis’ Latest Thoughts

Here are some of the things I’ve been thinking about:

The two areas in trading that separate the men from the boys (so to speak) are:

1.) The ability to divide environmental perceptions in half and process them separately. First I ask myself what I am feeling and in doing so I acknowledge and honor the feelings […]

PERCEPTION – It’s Not Rocket Surgery… to borrow a great line

Bear markets mean lower lows and lower highs ... and we are in a bear market until we get higher lows. and higher highs ... which is decidedly NOT today.

By |March 2nd, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

Do You Know where your Strategies Are?

It seems like it would go without saying but it doesn’t. A key to making money as a speculator is knowing what combination of market factors you are looking for – and then waiting for the elements to converge. This starts with knowing what your factors are…. can you describe them? In enough detail so […]

By |February 24th, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

What We Trade

It is very easy to think that we trade the chart or the probabilities – but in fact we trade against other people’s choices in response to the price movement.

It is then easy to say “well how do I tell the difference?” Ask yourself the question “what is everyone else doing given what has […]

By |February 17th, 2009|Markets|2 Comments

The Beginning of Discretionary Trading

Today a very sophisticated systematic (quantitative) trader said “Discretionary trading wasn’t around before the 1980’s.” I am still stunned. Maybe he is 22 years old or something…. but can anyone explain this to me? He might have met “money managed in a discretionary manner” but still…….

By |February 3rd, 2009|Uncategorized|2 Comments

The First Religious Ritual of 2009

…that is always how Fed afternoon strikes me. All of us short-term, high-frequency traders staring at the screens ready at least to watch the fireworks. Sometimes I find myself laughing at 2:14:30 Eastern time. Some of us love it (me) and some of us think it is insane (me too) but we watch …. wait […]

By |January 27th, 2009|“Locals”, Markets|0 Comments

Risky, Uncertain or Ambiguous?

If you ask a neuroeconomist about the markets, they will say markets are NOT risky. In fact, they are 100% certain that risk is not the issue in markets.

What you say? Isn’t that the whole point – judging risk? Well yes… but, well actually no.

Let me explain. To a neuroecon type risk = known probabilities […]

By |November 24th, 2008|Emotions & Decisions, Learning Psych Cap, Markets|0 Comments

Maniac-Depressive Algos

Uh…. up almost 1000 points at the relative speed of light?

The pace of the markets has changed a bit wouldn’t you say?

In other words, take a quant driven hedge fund, add an intraday momentum algorithm, put a server at the exchange and HOLD ON for dear life. For now let’s call this “quants on the […]

By |October 28th, 2008|Markets|0 Comments

Evidently chop and slop can be in 100 point increments …

Wow – what a chopfest. … which I have heard is the sign of a bottom. I could really see and feel the fight for value – with about equal players on both sides. Hard NOT to get aggravated in that and even harder to apply the “well if it can’t go down, it must […]

By |October 24th, 2008|Markets|4 Comments

Panic & Decision-Making

Of course you are panicky. I mean who wouldn't be? Do we have any experience with major US companies, banks in particular, going out of business one right after the other? Have any of us lived through this? Even if you were alive and remember the crash of 1929 or the depression that followed it, you didn't experience it in a 24 hour news cycle where each 12 hours brought the next major name to either its demise or the brink of disaster. This is scary stuff...

By |September 18th, 2008|Markets|2 Comments