Uncertainty

Disaster and Uncertainty

Earthquakes, tsunamis and literal fall-out – while we sometimes use these words metaphorically, we are now faced with their literal ramifications. We can’t escape the absolute uncertainty the world, and the tragedy-laden Japanese people, must deal with.

The first thing to do – if you want to make the best decisions related to however you are […]

By |March 15th, 2011|Natural disaster reactions, ReThinking|0 Comments

Sullenberger “Fear mixed with Focus”

I have said it before and will say it again, FDR was wrong. It is not that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself, the only thing we have to fear is no fear at all.

By |February 9th, 2009|Emotions & Decisions, Learning Psych Cap|4 Comments

an Uncertainty circuit

With apologies for being out of touch, I would like to make a couple of notes on psych cap. First, and I have said this before in different way, it really does appear that our brains have special “curcuits” for detecting imprecision or uncertainty. In other words, that feeling that someone or something is there […]

By |January 23rd, 2009|Emotions & Decisions|0 Comments

Keynes said it before us

Someone named Robert Skidlesky wrote a book called John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman. He says that Keynes said “not all future events could be reduced to measurable risk. There was a residue of genuine uncertainty and this made disaster an ever-present possibility, not a once-in-a-lifetime ‘shock’. Investment was more an act of faith […]

By |December 29th, 2008|Markets|4 Comments

Having Forgotten to Doubt, “Modern Finance” drove us Insane

Portfolio selection: Let’s exhume the buried man!

In his milestone paper “Portfolio Selection” published in the Journal of Finance in 1952, Harry Markowitz, the pioneer of “modern finance,” recommends to use the Expected return-Variance (E-V) rule, both as a working hypothesis to explain investment behavior and as a guide to “investment” – as distinguished from speculative […]

By |December 8th, 2008|French PhD Chick, Markets|2 Comments