Solve that Cleveland Sports Curse

UPDATE June 20, 2016: I am SO glad the Cavs won! Thrilled. Elated. Vindicated. Ecstatic. Relieved. Joyous. Shocked… not necessarily in that order. Maybe someday I will get to interview LeBron about the cycle of emotions he experienced and used to create this incredible historic victory!

UPDATE June 17, 2016: This time I stayed until the […]

Brain Turns Statistics into Emotion!

In technical terms, the researchers call this projected emotion, “anticipatory affect”. In simple terms, the results of this meta-analysis of the brain’s reaction to probabilities in risk goes like this:

1. A trader or PM takes in information about the expected mean, variance or skewness of a trade.

2. The PM or trader’s brain responds with an […]

Neuroscience & The Risk Manager including White Paper The Art of Algorithmic War

Coates, Shull, other experts weigh in on risk professionals’ attention to their discipline

Thursday, May 02, 2013,
Risk Professional Magazine (published by the Global Association of Risk Professionals – GARP)
By Katherine Heires
Over the past 20 years, advances in brain imaging technology and other methods of analyzing neural activity have yielded important insights into […]

The Secret Ingredient to Success in The NYTimes

Last Sunday, the most successful trader I knew from the Chicago Options pits texted me this – “Self-examination is the key to noodle making and other accomplishments.”

Now you should know two things – 1) this guy NEVER texts – we have been friends for going on 20 years and this is the very first […]

Risk & Uncertainty: Better Judgment

It’s easy to confuse the two but as Frank Knight wrote almost a century ago, they are two different things.

Little did he know, that in addition to his logic, the brain reacts to each differently. With risk, or KNOWN probabilities, the brain can handle it in a more or less linear way. With uncertainty, which […]

The MIT Sloan fellows were great!

~ a ton of fun! Yes at MIT!

The psychology of risk about which I speak applies to any business decision. It’s great fun to get out and talk to people who are learning to make better risk decisions – even if they aren’t necessarily market decisions.

Thanks to Katherine Kaminsky PhD of AlphaK Capital for […]

By |August 17th, 2012|Academia, ReThinking|0 Comments

It never ceases to amaze me ho…

It never ceases to amaze me how “Regret Theory”, while SO instructive, has been missed by psychologists & economists. http://t.co/lNfxouQ2

By |August 15th, 2012|ReThinking, Risk Prediction|0 Comments

CNBC Squawk Box on Market Mind Games

In case you missed it, here’s my segment on CNBC Squawk Box this morning. Had a ton of fun with Joe and Andrew. More later.

FRIDAY the 10th … and yes, this Joe, this approach DOES work with putting too! In fact, it may work even better with putting because there are actually fewer uncertainties than […]

By |August 9th, 2012|Golf, Perception, ReThinking, Risk Management|0 Comments

Instant Intelligence

We all like to think we are smart. We all admire, sometimes in awe, intelligence. But did you know that our understanding of the composition of intelligence is rapidly changing? Did you know that one research study showed that hand movement improved one’s ability to do complex math?

To become instantly smarter about any decision […]

Jamie, Psych Risk Management & Living to Trade Another Day

This is a true story.

3 years ago today (I have this weird memory for dates), I spotted Jamie Dimon and Bill Daley sitting outside Gibsons in Chicago. I just happened to have come from a lunch with Patricia Crisafulli who had written the House of Dimon and I had her book with his picture on […]