decision-making under risk

Solve that Cleveland Sports Curse

UPDATE June 20, 2016: I am SO glad the Cavs won! Thrilled. Elated. Vindicated. Ecstatic. Relieved. Joyous. Shocked… not necessarily in that order. Maybe someday I will get to interview LeBron about the cycle of emotions he experienced and used to create this incredible historic victory!

UPDATE June 17, 2016: This time I stayed until the […]

The 3 “Eyes” of Trading Using Your Feelings

It unfortunately remains the predominant and conventional wisdom that the best trading occurs from so-called purely rational (read: statistical) and non-emotional analysis. Alas, it’s just not true. In fact, it isn’t even possible for a human being to make a risk-decision devoid of feelings and the most-forward thinking research says it isn’t possible to be […]

By |October 23rd, 2014|Emotion Analytics, Learning Psych Cap, Perception, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Truly Understanding your Trading Decisions

In many ways, many traders end up shrugging their shoulders to the tune of “oh well I will do better next time”. The question becomes /what exactly/ will make them perceive, decide and act “better” the next time? I mean it isn’t like there aren’t tons of methods and tools to help a trader with […]

Trader Diagnosis’ Latest Thoughts

Here are some of the things I’ve been thinking about:

The two areas in trading that separate the men from the boys (so to speak) are:

1.) The ability to divide environmental perceptions in half and process them separately. First I ask myself what I am feeling and in doing so I acknowledge and honor the feelings […]

What You Need to Know to Trade

There must be 10,000 lists like this… let me add mine – hopefully with many useful twists.

1. You need to know what you are looking for – both to enter the market and to exit.

2. You need to know what the variations on #1 are – and what they are not!

3. You need to know […]

By |January 19th, 2010|Definitions, Learning Psych Cap|0 Comments

“Emotional arousal” is not something to avoid, but to master. By Elise Payzan Le Nestour

All this suggests that emotions are key information providers when deciding under uncertainty. They make us tuned to our environment. Actually, in some contexts of fast and intuitive decision-making in the face of unstable (high vol) conditions, one expects that the stronger the emotional uncertainty signals of the day-trader, the higher the performance.

By |October 20th, 2009|Emotions & Decisions, French PhD Chick, Risk Decisions, Worth Reading|2 Comments

What is this thing I talk about anyway

Psych cap – emotional intelligence – judgment – feelings – ambiguity perception…. can we get this organized?


1. Markets are only human

2. The numbers are only a clue

3. The brain knows it

4. The brain believes it is in the jungle fighting for survival

5. The brain knows how to survive and uses all kinds of mechanisms to […]

By |June 4th, 2009|Markets|0 Comments

Pre-eminent Physical Experience

The way we see it, the brain will always win in the end so why not get started as soon as possible on working in concert with a brain and a body that work together to assess and address uncertain situations - price movement or sand traps.

By |May 27th, 2009|Emotion Analytics, Learning Psych Cap|10 Comments

How to Leverage Emotion in Market Judgments

The thing is - all of this requires both a change in perspective and more importantly, putting the same effort into understanding your internal signals as you put into the ones the market is providing!

By |May 17th, 2009|Markets|8 Comments

The Ultimate Quant? I wondered …or, wonder.

Back in March I read Alpha magazine’s ranking of the 25 top hedge fund managers and was struck by the reported fact that Renaissance Technologies’ disparity between their funds. The flagship fund produced an 80% return, (after fees!) in 2008 but it open only to “partners, employees, ex-employees and friends”. According to Alpha magazine “Outsiders […]

By |May 15th, 2009|Markets|2 Comments