risk psychology

Mental Match-up NBA Finals Game 1 – Advantage #CAVS

Going in, the mental advantage tips to the Cavs. The Cavs can lose one and maybe even two games and still feel that they can come back, still feel like “so what, we’ve done this before.”

On the other hand, if Curry, Durant and Green lose even one game early in the series, they are going […]

By |June 1st, 2017|Emotion Analytics, Emotions & Decisions, sports psychology|0 Comments

Solve that Cleveland Sports Curse

UPDATE June 20, 2016: I am SO glad the Cavs won! Thrilled. Elated. Vindicated. Ecstatic. Relieved. Joyous. Shocked… not necessarily in that order. Maybe someday I will get to interview LeBron about the cycle of emotions he experienced and used to create this incredible historic victory!

UPDATE June 17, 2016: This time I stayed until the […]

Really Simple Ways to Improve Trading Results

In a culture where it seems like hard work will be an edge, many traders mistake the type of work that will indeed create the best results. Trading is not only an intellectual exercise but a physical and emotional one as well. It follows then that an edge or at a minimum, the approximation of […]

Should I Trade in Simulation?

In the course of my 20+ years in the trading world, the question of when or how to use ‘sim’ has come up dozens of times. When I traded full-time, I used to wonder. When I added coaching, I got the question all of the time.
This week a client told me of an educator who […]

By |January 25th, 2015|Definitions, Learning Psych Cap, Trading Education|0 Comments

The 3 “Eyes” of Trading Using Your Feelings

It’s unfortunately still the conventional wisdom that the best trading occurs from so-called purely rational (read: statistical) and non-emotional analysis. Alas, it’s just not true. In fact, it isn’t even possible for a human being to make a risk-decision devoid of feelings and the most-forward thinking research says it isn’t possible to be rational WITHOUT […]

By |October 23rd, 2014|Emotion Analytics, Learning Psych Cap, Perception, Uncategorized|0 Comments

A Fallacy in “plan the trade, trade the plan.”

I followed the dictum for years – or at least I followed it as well as I could. “Plan the trade, trade the plan”. But like everyone else I had trouble with the second part and often chastised myself. That was until neuroscience proved that within uncertainty – like when our brains see markets – […]

By |December 3rd, 2012|Learning Psych Cap, Pure Science, Risk Decisions, Trading Education|0 Comments

Risk & Uncertainty: Better Judgment

It’s easy to confuse the two but as Frank Knight wrote almost a century ago, they are two different things.

Little did he know, that in addition to his logic, the brain reacts to each differently. With risk, or KNOWN probabilities, the brain can handle it in a more or less linear way. With uncertainty, which […]

It never ceases to amaze me ho…

It never ceases to amaze me how “Regret Theory”, while SO instructive, has been missed by psychologists & economists. http://t.co/lNfxouQ2

By |August 15th, 2012|ReThinking, Risk Prediction|0 Comments

CNBC Squawk Box on Market Mind Games

In case you missed it, here’s my segment on CNBC Squawk Box this morning. Had a ton of fun with Joe and Andrew. More later.

FRIDAY the 10th … and yes, this Joe, this approach DOES work with putting too! In fact, it may work even better with putting because there are actually fewer uncertainties than […]

By |August 9th, 2012|Golf, Perception, ReThinking, Risk Management|0 Comments

Hurricane Earl – Even More Objective Probability than the Markets

A few moments ago, CNBC broadcast a weather report showing the best and worst case scenarios for the potential left and right track of Hurricane Earl. They projected it will “brush the East Coast on Thursday”. Weather channels, however, are saying “Friday” is the H-day. Who’s right?

There is literally no way to know – until […]

By |August 31st, 2010|Perception, Subjective Probabilities|0 Comments