Perception

Develop the Instincts for Trading

“I got them all wrong” exclaimed one private equity portfolio manager. “Ha! Right!” said another Chief Investment Officer when I suggested that the pattern recognition skills embedded in succeeding with the Bloomberg Tradebook Trader Brain Exercise (TBX > GO) resembled private equity decisions.
With almost ten thousand players, this exercise/game illustrates an underlying hunger for new ways to improve […]

By |October 25th, 2016|Academia, Perception, Risk Decisions, Risk Prediction|0 Comments

Solve that Cleveland Sports Curse

UPDATE June 20, 2016: I am SO glad the Cavs won! Thrilled. Elated. Vindicated. Ecstatic. Relieved. Joyous. Shocked… not necessarily in that order. Maybe someday I will get to interview LeBron about the cycle of emotions he experienced and used to create this incredible historic victory!

UPDATE June 17, 2016: This time I stayed until the […]

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

We’ve all asked this question. Should I stay at the party a bit longer? Should I wait and see if the Cleveland Browns might possibly (by some miracle) pull this game out? (NO!)

But I bet it never occurred to you that this is really the central question of trading. It’s the exit that makes the […]

By |December 12th, 2015|Denise Shull, Emotion research, Learning Psych Cap, Perception|0 Comments

Gain Market Intuition with NinjaTrader’s Market Replay

Back in the ‘90s in Chicago when I just beginning to trade my mentor would say: “I’ve seen this movie before.” Mistaking the market for a math problem, I really didn’t get what he meant – until indeed I too felt a click of recognition as I watched price action unfold. Experience delivers an ability […]

Which Strategy for Trading Emotions Actually Wins?

Conventional wisdom still dictates that traders “control their emotions.” Yet somewhat conversely, the cutting edge of neuroeconomics research shows that “emotion determines how we perceive our world, organize our memory and make important decisions” (Brosh, 2013).

Ever wonder why you did the exact thing you planned not to? Ever marvel at how you said you would […]

Reading Fiction Might Improve Your Trading

Back in 2007, Cal-Tech ran what is turning out to be a revolutionary study on how the brain predicts price moves. The authors found that predicting other people is the key skill behind correctly predicting price moves. In some circles, this skill is called mentalizing but until recently, skill development programs for this ability were […]

The 3 “Eyes” of Trading Using Your Feelings

It’s unfortunately still the conventional wisdom that the best trading occurs from so-called purely rational (read: statistical) and non-emotional analysis. Alas, it’s just not true. In fact, it isn’t even possible for a human being to make a risk-decision devoid of feelings and the most-forward thinking research says it isn’t possible to be rational WITHOUT […]

By |October 23rd, 2014|Emotion Analytics, Learning Psych Cap, Perception, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Empathy and Intuition, Two Key Trading Thinking Styles

Two separate studies interviewing close to 200 successful portfolio managers and traders confirm what Jason Voss and Ravhee Mehta have reported in their books The Intuitive Investor and The Emotionally Intelligent Investor. Being able to read the feelings of other market participants, a form of empathy, and being able to parse one’s one feelings for […]

Brain Turns Statistics into Emotion!

In technical terms, the researchers call this projected emotion, “anticipatory affect”. In simple terms, the results of this meta-analysis of the brain’s reaction to probabilities in risk goes like this:

1. A trader or PM takes in information about the expected mean, variance or skewness of a trade.

2. The PM or trader’s brain responds with an […]

Emotional Intelligence circa 2014

Fast Company recently wrote that EI or emotional intelligence is beginning to be considered along SAT scores in college admittance – at Yale no less! Likewise, the New York Times reported on how emotional awareness tactics are helping discouraged job seekers find work.

What’s up with this? Why is emotion – that feared and denigrated element […]

By |March 5th, 2014|Academia, Emotion research, Perception|0 Comments