Risk Prediction

The Offense and Defense of Trading

Trading is hard. This far-flung, never-ending electronic poker game serves up a mental challenge unlike any other. Anything can happen at any time. It looks like a numbers game but it’s really a people game. The data are numbers but the information is in the relationships between, and the implications of, those numbers.

Ambiguity reigns.

Successful traders […]

Develop the Instincts for Trading

“I got them all wrong” exclaimed one private equity portfolio manager. “Ha! Right!” said another Chief Investment Officer when I suggested that the pattern recognition skills embedded in succeeding with the Bloomberg Tradebook Trader Brain Exercise (TBX > GO) resembled private equity decisions.
With almost ten thousand players, this exercise/game illustrates an underlying hunger for new ways to improve […]

By |October 25th, 2016|Academia, Perception, Risk Decisions, Risk Prediction|0 Comments

Solve that Cleveland Sports Curse

UPDATE June 20, 2016: I am SO glad the Cavs won! Thrilled. Elated. Vindicated. Ecstatic. Relieved. Joyous. Shocked… not necessarily in that order. Maybe someday I will get to interview LeBron about the cycle of emotions he experienced and used to create this incredible historic victory!

UPDATE June 17, 2016: This time I stayed until the […]

Which Strategy for Trading Emotions Actually Wins?

Conventional wisdom still dictates that traders “control their emotions.” Yet somewhat conversely, the cutting edge of neuroeconomics research shows that “emotion determines how we perceive our world, organize our memory and make important decisions” (Brosh, 2013).

Ever wonder why you did the exact thing you planned not to? Ever marvel at how you said you would […]

Nailing Better Trade Exits

Do you realize that almost no matter where you exit a trade, you are going to feel bad? If the trade is a winner, you wonder if you could have gotten more out of it or why you gave back part of what you had. It’s like a winner is ironically a no-win situation. On […]

Empathy and Intuition, Two Key Trading Thinking Styles

Two separate studies interviewing close to 200 successful portfolio managers and traders confirm what Jason Voss and Ravhee Mehta have reported in their books The Intuitive Investor and The Emotionally Intelligent Investor. Being able to read the feelings of other market participants, a form of empathy, and being able to parse one’s one feelings for […]

Brain Turns Statistics into Emotion!

In technical terms, the researchers call this projected emotion, “anticipatory affect”. In simple terms, the results of this meta-analysis of the brain’s reaction to probabilities in risk goes like this:

1. A trader or PM takes in information about the expected mean, variance or skewness of a trade.

2. The PM or trader’s brain responds with an […]

Neuroscience & The Risk Manager including White Paper The Art of Algorithmic War

Coates, Shull, other experts weigh in on risk professionals’ attention to their discipline

Thursday, May 02, 2013,
Risk Professional Magazine (published by the Global Association of Risk Professionals – GARP)
By Katherine Heires
Over the past 20 years, advances in brain imaging technology and other methods of analyzing neural activity have yielded important insights into […]

The Secret Ingredient to Success in The NYTimes

Last Sunday, the most successful trader I knew from the Chicago Options pits texted me this – “Self-examination is the key to noodle making and other accomplishments.”

Now you should know two things – 1) this guy NEVER texts – we have been friends for going on 20 years and this is the very first […]

Risk & Uncertainty: Better Judgment

It’s easy to confuse the two but as Frank Knight wrote almost a century ago, they are two different things.

Little did he know, that in addition to his logic, the brain reacts to each differently. With risk, or KNOWN probabilities, the brain can handle it in a more or less linear way. With uncertainty, which […]