MARKET MIND GAMES, A Radical Psychology of Risk

Risk ain’t what it used to be – if fact, most of the time it isn’t even risk at all. Instead it is something called Knightian Uncertainty – or the fundamental inability of humans to know for sure what will happen tomorrow. Yet we have to make decisions about tomorrow all the time.

Reams have been written in the last decade about how we decide but the truth is we’ve still only got a map that /maybe/ is the equivalent of a 19th century world map. And I specifically say maybe because there is so much we know that we don’t know.

Having said that, there are a startling number of things we are learning that turn the conventional wisdom upside down.

1. Context is everything. Even something as definitive as 2+2 = 4 is technically influenced by context. (Depending on the first language you learned, your brain will process that arithmetic differently).

2. Most of our thinking happens below or beyond our awareness – i.e. in our unconscious minds.

3. We have to have emotion to make any kind of decision at all – so trying to set it aside actually hurts us because in effect we are purposely choosing to ignore what may be the most important factor.

And that’s just the beginning.

So think about the implications – for leadership, for tough choices, for markets and for life in general. We literally need to rethink thinking itself – a task I offer a strategy for in MARKET MIND GAMES.

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